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文 / 新媒体砖家

4月16日晚，美国商务部发布告称，美国政府在未来7年内禁止中兴通讯向美国企业购买敏感产品。消息一出，立刻引发了轩然大波，针对中兴被美国“封杀”的问题，商务部表示，中方密切关注进展，随时准备采取必要措施，维护中国企业合法权益，最终，中美双方同意继续就有关问题保持密切沟通，并建立相应工作机制。

5月7日，白宫发言人桑德斯（Sarah Sanders）表示，中国国务院副总理刘鹤将于下周访美，与美国经贸官员继续就经贸问题进行磋商。备受社会各界关注的“中兴事件”或许也会因此迎来重大转机。

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由企业到政府的两线作战

封杀事件或将迎来转折

事实上，从特朗普上任之初便一直把贸易战挂在嘴边，可以说特朗普政府的贸易战之心，已经到了路人皆知的地步，此次选择以中兴为“首刀”目标，恐怕是中兴触碰了美国“利润顺差”的核心部位。

美国一直以来都是以技术输出为核心的大国，牢牢的搭建起技术壁垒，这种把核心技术留在自己手里，制造业外包的情况，会让美国的企业牢牢握住利润的头部，享有世界最大的“利润顺差”。

在这一点上，中兴近年的发展却在逐渐打破美国的技术壁垒。根据世界知识产权组织公布的2017年国际专利申请统计排名，中兴通讯以2965件国际专利申请量排名全球第二。这是中兴通讯连续第八年国际专利申请量位居全球前三，是中国唯一连续八年获此殊荣的企业。 截至2017年12月31日，中兴通讯累计拥有6.9万余件全球专利资产、终端专利申请超过2万件、已授权专利资产超过3万件。其中，5G战略布局专利全球超过2000件。

可以说在自主知识产权与技术的发展上，中兴不断的展示着自己极快的发展速度与未来潜力，也恐怕正是因为如此，才会导致美方视其为大敌，选择在贸易战中“首刀”中兴。

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从 4月16日，BIS宣布对中兴通讯激活拒绝令到如今已经过去了二十多天，中兴事件一直牵动着多方关注。

一方面，国家与人民方面，国民声援、专家鼓励、三部委积极协调，不遗余力的支持中兴。商务部新闻发言人于5月4日表示，在5月3日至4日举行的中美经贸磋商中，中方就中兴公司案与美方进行了严正交涉。美方表示，重视中方交涉，将向美总统报告中方立场。

另一方面中兴自身也在不断努力。5月6日晚公告，中兴公司已正式向美国商务部工业和安全局BIS提交了关于暂停执行拒绝令的申请,并根据BIS指引提交了回应拒绝令的补充材料。5月9日晚，中兴再次发布公告，表明自己目前现金充足，在合法合规的前提下坚守商业信用，会与美方积极沟通，推动美国政府调整或取消拒绝令，推动事情向好的方向发展。

双线启动，从目前来看可谓是效果显著，如今美国方面的态度也由最早的无比强硬到现在变得缓和起来。认可通过对话磋商解决有关经贸问题。这也表明中兴事件坚冰融化，是可以通过会谈来寻求解决方案。

2

贸易战只会两败俱伤

有效沟通才是最佳出路

事实上，美国方面态度出现转变不只是中兴和政府两线作战的原因，同时也是对贸易战所带来后果的深入思考，目前各方对于贸易战的看法都呈一边倒的结果，各方分析师都表达了对中美双方贸易战的担忧。

5月5日彭博报道打击中国科技企业将适得其反，中兴潜在破产的可能性可能成为引发贸易战最后一根导火索。中国可能会对在大陆经营的美国公司作出强烈的报复。

战略与国际研究中心(CSIS)高级副总裁James Andrew Lewis表示这些禁令太过“苛刻”，有可能促使中国政府下定决心用国产供应商取代美国公司，这将对美国公司的市场份额造成永久伤害。

拒绝令伤害的是美国公司和消费者，其程度远胜于中兴。许多美国公司都给中兴手机供货，如提供芯片的高通和提供玻璃的康宁。而且中兴是美国第四大智能手机厂商，约占10%市场份额，拒绝令将对美国运营商带来不小的冲击。

在经济全球化深入推进的今天，各国相互贸易以及全球价值链、产业链你中有我我中有你，已经紧紧联系在一起，经济全球化已不可逆转。展开贸易战，尤其是世界第一大经济体和世界第二大经济体之间发生，是违背国际贸易准则和经济全球化的基本规律的，所带来的伤害无异于现代文明的倒退。

而且贸易战还会影响美国很多科技公司的利益，例如苹果在中国和美国都有重要的利益。特朗普政府一直威胁要提高进口中国商品的关税，两国贸易战意味对于苹果来说不只是要花更多的钱来组装和运输iPhone，还有可能带来更大的打击。

由此可见，无论是从国际经济稳定，还是从美国自身发展的角度来看，贸易战绝对是场灾难。据华尔街日报5月9日当地时间报道，负责出口管控的美国商务部工业和安全局(Bureau of Industry and Security)的发言人表示，该局正评估中兴通讯的申诉，将立即给予考虑。这一报道也说明了中兴事件一切都在向积极方向发展！

对于中兴来说，固然，此次事件带给它很大的打击，但当漫长的黑夜过去，迎来的是黎明的曙光。正如毛主席在《论持久战》曾说过：“最后的胜利，往往在于再坚持一下的努力之中。”相信经过双方接下来的进一步的协商，一定会找到解决问题的方案，而中兴要做的就是忍住这黎明前的黑暗，坚持下去。

《反脆弱》一书中讲道，脆弱的反义词不是强韧，而是“反脆弱”，即在冲击中受益壮大。中兴虽然在最近面临了不小的风波，但更令人欣慰的是，在面对禁令挑战时，中兴一方面保持合规选择继续加强核心技术研发；另一方面，企业全体员工上下一心团结一致的态度，巨浪过后，内部的防御系统无疑将更加完善。经历了风口浪尖的洗礼，呈现给世人的将会是一个更加强大的中兴！