这个公告并非空穴来风。该公告前一天，《华尔街日报》报道称，美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）发言人表示正在评估中兴通讯申诉，将立即给予考虑。

北京时间5月13日晚，特朗普发Twitter称，正和中国国家主席习近平共同努力，为中兴通讯快速恢复业务提供途径，已下令商务部着手解决。

在刚过去的4月，是中美三十年科技贸易史上最令人忧虑的时刻。中兴美国禁令事件的处理，不单单是对中兴，也对中国，乃至全球经济走向造成深远影响。

2018年4月16日，美国商务部单方面激活美国企业禁止向中兴通讯销售元器件的禁令，为期7年。

直接诱因，居然是因为中兴向违规雇员支付了年终奖金。而实际上，是中兴主动上报了相关消息，并采取了纠正措施。更早之前，中兴在2017年于合规上投入超过5000万美元，并计划在2018年增加投入。这个BIS历史上最严厉的处罚，究其原因，可以说是非常明显的过度反应了。

随后中兴召开了发布会并发表了多封内部信。5月4日，美国特使、财政部长姆努钦率团访华，进行中美贸易磋商。中兴和中美贸易再次占据了各大头条。

还原一个真实的中兴

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整个事件，网络上铺天盖地都是关于国家、民族、芯片的各种消息和言论。唯独对被这次的关键人物——中兴本身，却少有合适的解读。

中兴的通讯之路从当年国内的“七国八制”（多国电信制式和标准）时期开始，在2G时代，中兴拿下“首家大陆自主知识产权的GSM移动通信产品出口、雅典奥运独家互联网设备支持、IT百强、CDMA和GSM出货与增速记录、国内科技企业专利纪录”等众多头衔和纪录。

3G和4G的网络换代，同样为低调成长的中兴奠定了基石。中兴在遍布全球160多个国家和地区拥有政府客户和企业客户，它不但是占据全球电信设备市场13%份额的综合通信解决方案提供商，而且还是美国仅次于三星、苹果和LG的第四大智能手机制造商，占据美国智能手机市场约12%的份额。

中兴的股价也从2017年的17元左右上涨到了30元左右，4年内股价涨了三倍。在4G大势已定，5G青黄不接的2018年，全球主要通信设备商一季度业绩大多表现平平，但中兴却交出一份亮眼的2018年一季度财报：营收288.8亿元，同比增长12%；净利润16.87亿元，同比增长39%。

谁说中兴没有技术、没有投入？

这次事件最开始引发的都是中国无芯论，但实际上，计算机在几十年间都是国际化的生态链，而且正在变得越来越复杂和全球化。全球资本、人才和技术的通力合作才铸就几十年的“摩尔定律”。

中兴就是其中一分子，不仅是我国专利最多的公司之一，还已经连续8年位居国际专利申请量全球前三。今年3月底，中兴在广州打通了全国首个5G电话，在5G领域已经处在全球领先地位。

中兴一直维持着超高的研发投入和技术人员占比，是拥有中国规模最大、最具创新能力的企业高科技研发团队之一。在5G研究和投入上，中兴也一直遥遥领先于其他厂商。5G之外，中兴也在移动终端、物联网、数据中心、人工智能、无人驾驶等领域进行创新投入和布局。

并且中兴通讯表示依旧会继续加大技术研发投入，继续加强核心技术能力。

在全球化的大背景下，合作共赢才是时代主旋律，即便是英特尔、三星这种巨无霸，也不可能包揽上下游所有业务。所以，不能草率地说中兴没有核心技术。

谁说中兴不努力？

中兴是海外业务拓展最广、业务最大的中国公司之一。连年的高速发展，注定它同时也是和国际规则接触最多的中国公司之一。中兴始终坚持以国际一流标准进行合规体系建设，这些本来就是全球化的高科技企业的内在要求。不重视合规和国际规则，根本就不可能在国际业务上高速拓展。

在之前的贸易调查中，中兴也充分展现了作为全球化企业运用合规来解决问题的坚定决心，包括成立了合规管理委员会，构建和优化了中兴通讯出口管制合规管理架构、制度和流程。其资深出口管制合规专家团队覆盖全球，并有多家国际一流的顾问单位提供专业指导。

中兴在2017年于合规上投入超过5000万美元，计划在2018年投入更多资源，并已经组织了6.5万员工进行合规培训，全面配合美方指派的检察官工作，并提供了 13.2万页的文件。

甚至在事件发生后，中兴通讯仍然不放弃通过沟通对话解决问题的努力，恪守着合规的发展底线，积极与美国政府相关部门沟通。5月6日，中兴已正式向BIS提交了关于暂停执行拒绝令的申请，并按BIS的指引提交了补充资料。

非常幼稚却非常危险的贸易争端

这次的中兴禁令事件，是美国贸易保护主义抬头的一个缩影。美国总统特朗普之前宣布增加进口铝和钢铁关税，正式拉开了贸易争端序幕。随后中兴事件更是直指下一个经济发展引擎——5G。

中国2017年长期战略文件“中国制造2025”明确规划了在未来十年内实现5G技术等计划的优势。在人工智能、5G和物联网等领域，无论是美国还是中国，把握先机者将在未来几十年中主宰行业，这些技术优势也会进一步影响更高层级的军事优势和经济走势。

在5G领域，几乎所有在这一技术领域提交的新专利都是由中美两国提交的，其他国家都远远落后。而中国的中兴、华为又占领了半壁江山，美国在下一个时代技术中感受到的竞争压力，引起了内部的恐慌并过激操作了。

过激操作

如果站在中长期历史的角度看，我们会发现，中国正处在一个为时30年的经济政治大轮回中，30年前的美国政府也遇上了现在的美债和利率问题。特朗普政府现在走的，仍然是里根政府30年前实行的“减税，军事、贸易战”三部曲。我们能看到，前有美国用叙利亚问题掣肘俄罗斯，后有中美贸易争端。

但贸易保护和贸易战，早已被多次证明是错误的方针。《金融时报》评论说，这次的中兴禁令事件，是“经济上有误、外交上有毒、法律上有破坏性”的。但事件发展到以一种“拒绝令”的形式，呈现一个国家对一家企业的制裁时，该禁令不但没有经济利益，也没有法律意义。

更有外媒评论道，随后的中美会谈中，特朗普政府的要求“要不是太愚蠢至极不知这些要求无法接受，要不就是霸道至极毫不在乎。”全球评级公司指出，这次禁令的单边主义施压，无论是对中国企业，还是对美国公司和就业，乃至全球产业链，都造成了严重的打击。

贸易争端影响初现

中国是美国对外的最大市场，中美之间的经济依存度非常高，中兴禁令引起的美科技股暴跌，从侧面证明这种依存关系的紧密。中兴的智能手机遍布全球，同时也在为全球最大的电信公司提供网络和设备。这次事件导致大量没有加入到这场战争中的公司遭到了所谓的“双边损害”。

当中，电信和数通市场光器件、模块和子系统供应商Oclaro股价下跌15.2%，通讯半导体供应商Inphi公司股价下跌6%，光纤产品生产和销售商Lumentum Holding股价下跌9.1%。中兴采购量占自身出货量30%的Acacia通信公司，更是直接暴跌35.97%。高通收购荷兰公司恩智浦的计划，也因此受到牵连，可能被迫搁置。

2017全球采购芯片前十名，中国公司联想、华为和步步高电子独占3席，分别排在世界4-6位。而中兴是美国第四大智能手机厂商，约占10%市场份额。Acacia、Oclaro、英特尔、微软、高通、镁光、康宁等大量美国公司都是中兴的重要供货商。据估算，如果真的实施7年禁令，美国供应商将损失超过68亿美元的销售，波及超过3.2万名员工。

标普全球评级公司也曾警告说，美国企业是特朗普总统对华贸易战的最大输家。在全球最大的两个经济体“交火”后，特斯拉、得克萨斯仪器和皮博迪能源等公司面临的信用风险比中国同行更大。美国企业违约几率变动幅度的中位数为13%，而中国企业仅为3%。

如不及时阻止，可怕的事情还在后头

而贸易争端最可怕的，是后面的相互报复阶段。无视中国巨大的需求而打贸易战，无异于是搬起石头砸自己的脚。在全球经济供应链中，没有企业，甚至国家可以独立生存。贸易战的影响是多方面的，除了影响自身经济，伤害大型企业和本土消费者，还会帮助美国供应商的竞争对手。

在中兴这个例子中，如果事态进一步扩散，近期将影响非洲、中东以及欧洲的无线运营商。中长期则是阻碍5G无线技术的研发，延缓无线技术的发展和应用。在全球经济乏力，急需新的经济引擎的时候，这种打击更加是致命性的。

禁令事件为全球化带来阴影，很可能会让中国不惜代价进行芯片投入，防止这种情况再次发生。局势不受控制的话，双方的相互依存关系将被削弱，中国可能会采取相关措施不断降低对美国的贸易依赖，打破双方当前的“共生”局面。

而中国公司也会寻求其他供应商，留下的市场空白会被世界各地的其他供应商填补，甚至中国政府也会下定决心用国产供应商取代美国公司。进一步恶化就会是相互报复，但以中美政治体制的差异，双方还击的速度会有巨大的差别。据美国媒体统计，有40个行业可能会受到中国的报复，直接影响约210万个工作岗位，近13.4万美国人将失去工作，美国农民的净收入将下降6.7%。

而中方这边也拿着和5G同级别的大棒，无论是高通、还是苹果，移动端产品最核心的CPU，都避不开ARM的授权。根据《日本经济新闻》的最新报道，软银之所以把ARM中国公司51％的股份卖给中方，正是为了防止美国政府的技术封锁。甚至合同中特别规定，ARM中国公司的股份今后不能卖给美国公司。

在中美博弈中，其他国家也要维护自身的利益，比起美国一头独大，中美平衡才是对世界经济最友好的方向，大部分经济体本质都站在中国一端。而ARM这家英国公司，则是经过日本财团到了中国手上，用来牵制美国。

中兴双线战场，谈判终现转机

在这次事件中，中兴一直保持着团结一致，坚守岗位，坚信会走出困境的状态。其表示，下一步将继续在政府指导下推进问题解决，同时积极和律师事务所一道用一切合法方式与美国政府交涉。

除了上面提到的5000万美元级别的国际合规努力外，中兴还采取双线战场的方针。中兴通讯表示，将通过双线齐下的方式积极应对，一方面始终与国家战略保持一致，将在中国政府的指导下推进问题的解决；另一方面同时将用一切合法方式与美国政府相关部门沟通，力争在尽可能短的时间内推动问题解决。

该事件已经出现转机，如文章开头提到，华尔街日报称，中兴已正式向BIS提交了关于暂停执行拒绝令的申请，并根据BIS指引提交了补充材料，美国商务部发言人表示正在审核中兴的材料，将会给与及时考虑。

而中国政府方面也与美国保持积极沟通，并已将中兴事件放到了中国的整体国家战略之下，与美方进行磋商。先是5月4日的中美贸易磋商，中方就中兴公司案与美方进行了严正的交涉，随后5月8日，习近平主席与特朗普的通话，都表明了中方的态度。

中兴事件的双线作战策略获得了良好的效果，彭博社等国际媒体和美国社会的主流声音，也再次发声反对与声讨贸易战。双方都认识到过激反应将带来的负面影响，尽快找到合适的和平解决方案才是双方的正确方向。

美方从一开始的坚决态度开始软化，表态也释放出了积极的信号。和美方最开始悍然对中国发起“301调查”，并计划随意对超过1000亿美元中国商品加征关税，以及美国商务部从起初“没有任何回旋余地”，到后来同意中兴通讯提供进一步资料，再到坐下来交换意见，并磋商后表示重视中方交涉并将向美总统报告中方立场。

各界信号和力量开始发声与介入

事件的转机，是中国政府坚定的态度，和中兴通讯坚持与国家战略保持一致的积极推动的结果，这预示着一个良好的开始。

5月3日，美国国家纳税人联盟(NTU)向特朗普和国会，发出了联名反对美国政府近期在贸易方面采取的保护主义措施的公开信。这是美国历史上继1930年由1028名经济学家签署的谏言信之后，分量最重的公开信。后者由超过1100名经济学家联合签署，当中还包括十几位诺贝尔经济学奖得主，以及特朗普之前的28年来历任美国总统的经济顾问。

代表美国主流声音的公开信表示，提高保护性关税是一个错误，将导致商品价格上涨，国内消费者将为此买单，令多数美国公民受到伤害。高关税还会不可避免的影响美国的国际关系，不利于世界和平。平等磋商妥善解决经贸关系问题，才是符合两国共同利益的双赢之举。

而5月5日，巴菲特在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会上，也利用自己巨大的影响力，表达了对贸易保护主义的态度，其指出“自由贸易的好处是巨大的，世界依赖自由贸易来进步，两个智慧的国家不会做出非常愚蠢的事情”。

而另一方面，联发科也已获得台湾经济部批准，拿到恢复向中兴通讯出口货品的许可证，另外还有数家台湾厂商也在等待许可。联发科会继续为中兴的几款智能手机提供芯片，有助于中兴恢复供应链和销售。

5月13日晚，特朗普发Twitter称，中国国家主席习近平和其正在共同努力，为中兴快速恢复业务提供途径。紧接着美国时间14日特朗普又发了第二条Twitter，认为中兴作为一家中国手机巨头，会从美国的公司采购大部分的元器件。这关系到了正在进行的中美贸易协议谈判，以及他本人与习主席的关系。

14日下午，外交部发言人称，十分赞赏美方对中兴问题的表态，并指出应美国政府邀请，中美全面经济对话牵头人刘鹤将于5月15日-19日访美，就双方经贸问题继续磋商。

所有这些事件都表明，中兴事件正往好的方向发展，一直没有放弃努力的中兴已经看到了黎明的曙光。中兴作为全球化的企业，它的未来会直接影响通讯行业的走向，先不论中国不可能会让这么大的核心企业垮掉，就连美国的主流声音都已认识到贸易保护和贸易战是零和游戏，没有真正赢家。